Financial Technical Analysis Crypto Narrative Chapter 1 DOW Theory

Fajar Purnama
12 min readJun 8, 2021

In the current financial technical analysis (FTA), the first subject to learn is the DOW Theory. Sounds similar to DOW Jones right? Well it was written by Charles H. Dow who was the co-founder of Dow Jones and Company. The writer himself never called it the “DOW Theory” as he was just writing pieces of information in The Wall Street Journal where he was the founder in. William Peter Hamilton, Robert Rhea, and E. George Schaefer collected and organized his writings from 255 editorials in The Wall Street Journal and called it the DOW Theory.

If you have been following my blogging income reports, you probably read that I used my profits from the crypto bull market to take a course in financial technical analysis. Since there are already many sources about the Dow Theory such as Wikipedia and Investopedia, I will write mine from a different perspective which are based on my experiences in the cryptocurrency market and my financial technical analysis course. There are six main headlines of the DOW Theory:

1. The Market Discounts Everything

The market incorporates every single piece of information in real-time. It is almost humanely impossible to catch up in real-time. So there are “no absolutely right” and “no absolutely wrong”, but there are “most likely” and “less likely”.

  1. The market discounts everything.
  2. The market went the opposite of our analysis.
  3. There are probably information that we left out so go back to rule number that the market discounts everything and readjust our analysis.

To relate this to crypto it is always best to quickly change our tune. An investor does not follow Bitcoin Maximalist who are always bullish in Bitcoin. Always bullish is good for early investors but for new investors, it is stupid to buy at a high price. It is safer to wait for a pull back, correction, or the bear market rather than buying high and panic selling later. Investors must realize that they are not purely investors, they are supporters who will live and die for Bitcoin. For analyzers, the market is the king, not Bitcoin. If you want to take a god, do not take Bitcoin as a god, but take the market as the god. On the other side, always bearish like…

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Fajar Purnama

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